As summer’s warmth lingers, the question on everyone’s mind is: Summer’s Final Act? Meteorological fall officially began on September 1, 2025, and leading weather agencies have released their in-depth forecasts, painting a detailed picture of what to expect in the coming months. These outlooks address whether the summer heat is truly behind us, offering varied predictions across different regions of North America and even parts of the UK. From temperature trends to precipitation levels and potential severe weather, here’s a comprehensive look at what Fall 2025 has in store, according to the experts.
Overall Temperature Trends: Lingering Warmth
Despite the calendar turning to fall, the overall forecast suggests that warmth will persist. AccuWeather and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) both anticipate above-average temperatures for much of the Lower 48 states throughout the fall season. This is especially true for the Western United States and the Southeast. The Old Farmer’s Almanac echoes this sentiment, projecting a warmer-than-normal autumn, particularly for the western half of the country. While some may be eager for crisp, cool days, it appears summer’s influence will extend its stay.
However, cooler pockets are expected. The North Central states and interior Northeast may experience periods of cooler temperatures, especially during early fall. According to the National Weather Service, colder blasts are predicted to become more frequent in late October and November, impacting the Upper Midwest, including states like North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. This fluctuation highlights the complex transition between seasons.
One contributing factor to these early cold snaps could be an unusually weak stratospheric polar vortex observed in early September, according to long-range forecasting models.
Regional Forecasts: A Closer Look
East Coast
The eastern half of the United States experienced a temporary cooldown in early September, with temperatures potentially dropping as much as 15 degrees below historical averages. Nights turned chilly, offering a brief respite from the summer heat. However, warmer conditions are expected to return by mid-September. NOAA forecasts above-normal precipitation along the East Coast, extending into the Ohio Valley, which is linked to an anticipated above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
West Coast
The Western United States is expected to maintain summer-like warmth through most of September. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures for the western half of the U.S. throughout the fall. However, this warmth coupled with dry conditions brings an elevated risk of wildfires.
Midwest
While the overall trend leans towards warmer temperatures, the Midwest is likely to experience more significant temperature swings. Colder blasts are expected to become more frequent in late October and November, particularly impacting the Upper Midwest. This region should prepare for an earlier onset of winter-like conditions compared to other parts of the country.
Southeast
Florida and the Southeast are projected to maintain warmer-than-average temperatures throughout the fall. This prolonged warmth also increases the risk of severe weather and tropical threats, as lingering summer heat clashes with encroaching cold air. The region is also at an increased risk for tornadoes associated with tropical systems, as noted by AccuWeather.
Pacific Northwest
The Pacific Northwest is likely to see increased rain chances as it transitions into its typical wet season. While the Old Farmer’s Almanac generally predicts drier-than-average conditions for much of the country, the Pacific Northwest stands as an exception.
Precipitation Patterns: Wet vs. Dry
Precipitation patterns are expected to vary significantly across the country. NOAA forecasts above-normal precipitation along the East Coast to the Ohio Valley, primarily due to the expected active hurricane season. Conversely, below-normal precipitation is favored for the west-central U.S. The Old Farmer’s Almanac generally predicts drier-than-average conditions for much of the country, but notes exceptions, such as the Pacific Northwest.
Severe Weather and Tropical Threats: Stormy Seas Ahead
Abnormally warm waters are expected to fuel the potential for dangerous tropical storms and hurricanes, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Forecasters are warning of rapid development near land, emphasizing the need for coastal communities to remain vigilant. The clash of lingering summer warmth and encroaching cold air is predicted to trigger severe weather, including damaging storms and tornadoes, from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley, especially in October and November. Florida and the Southeast are also at an increased risk for tornadoes associated with tropical systems, according to reports from WSJM.
Wildfire Risk: A Burning Concern
Due to persistent warmth and dry conditions, a very high risk of wildfires is forecast for parts of Central and Northern California, eastern Oregon, and western and central Idaho. Residents in these areas should take precautions to prevent wildfires and stay informed about local fire conditions.
La Niña’s Potential Influence
Looking ahead, there is an increasing likelihood of La Niña conditions developing as winter approaches. If La Niña materializes, it could bring cooler temperatures over the northern United States and a diminished storm track in the southern tier, potentially leading to milder-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in those areas. Conversely, the storm track is typically shifted northward during La Niña, bringing above-normal precipitation to parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Conclusion: Planning for Fall’s Complexities
The Fall 2025 weather forecast presents a mixed bag of conditions across the United States. While warmer-than-average temperatures are expected for much of the country, particularly in the West and Southeast, colder blasts are anticipated in the Midwest later in the season. The potential for severe weather and tropical threats remains a significant concern, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. As we transition into fall, staying informed about local weather conditions and heeding warnings from trusted sources like AccuWeather, NOAA, and The Old Farmer’s Almanac will be crucial for navigating the season’s complexities and ensuring safety.
